High annual survival in infected wildlife populations may veil a persistent extinction risk from disease

White-nose syndrome (WNS) has caused catastrophic declines in some bat species, while others appear less impacted. We conducted a mark–recapture study of federally endangered Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) during 2011–2016 and found survival had decreased by around 4 percentage points. We ran population models based on new survival data and results suggested there will be future population declines for the Indiana bat.

A Novel Tool for Making Policy Recommendations Based on PVA: Helping Theory Become Practice

Mathematical models that inform conservation efforts always have underlying uncertainty. We show that in many applied cases, this uncertainty results in a non-trivial probability that management action will have no benefit to conservation. We encourage future use of population viability analysis (PVA) to explicitly account for this uncertainty when considering whether or not to implement management actions.

A modeling methodology to evaluate the efficacy of predator exclosures versus predator control

Endangered species face many threats, including from invasive predators. Here, we developed a modelling method to compare different management options for controlling predators. We then applied this method to compared management options for the endangered shorebird, the piping plover, which faces predation threats from the red fox along New Jersey beaches.